Dollar Down, Metals Up (FCX, X, GLD)

My natural tendency is to look for excuses to play the market and its components lower.  That said, I am having a difficult time trying to convince myself to get short after last week’s rally.   The #1 reason has to do with the US dollar.  No matter how I slice it, the dollar from a technical point of view, is poised to go lower.  In the chart below, we can see some of the pattern setting up.  The most bullish thing I can say on the dollar is that it may be set to consolidate slightly over the coming weeks.

Historically, a lower dollar leads to rallies in stocks and makes it more advantageous to play the upside in the market.  Metals tend to perform the best when the dollar is falling and stocks like FCX and X are showing some interesting bullish patterns.   I am looking at calls in the metal area into the close.  I may wait til the morning to put a play on.  I am waiting to see how the hourly charts set up into the close.

 

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Posted on November 26, 2012, in Jeffs 3k-100k and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

  1. yea buddy its a test of patience today , but few weeks ago down on monday , we were down the whole week , so I am laying low, missed some covered calls to day as usuall but , ahead , I know its hind site, but did write and order to re load apple and talked my self out of it , so there , I own some x bonds , all my silver stocks are down with the metal up , so I have been confused with that for a month , or so , its seems to be all about tech , thanks dan o

    Date: Mon, 26 Nov 2012 19:04:57 +0000 To: ex_blue@hotmail.com

  2. Yeah Dan, miner valuations just seem to be stretched. But you know the game…they catch up eventually. SLW…intriguing upside.

    With tech…QQQ and AAPL…hand in hand.

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